# CH-008 live evaluation brief

Generated at: 2026-10-31T14:20:10.738963+00:00
Protocol: ch008-three-region-prospective-v1
Mode: prospective
Counts toward prospective claim: true
Pipeline status: ok
Open incidents: 0
Claim assessment: insufficient_scored_events_for_primary_claim

## Current descriptive result

Score revision: final
Scored days: 30
Scored events: 76
Mean IGPE: 0.02409939702712846
Relative factor exp(IGPE): 1.0243921343631799
Direction: ch008_higher_observed_event_density
Warning: A positive live IGPE is descriptive until the frozen event gate and uncertainty criteria are met; few events are not proof that CH-008 beats ETAS.

## Region results

- California RELM: events=67, IGPE=0.023375750814155147, direction=ch008_higher_observed_event_density, missed_days=0, current_missed_streak=0, longest_missed_streak=0, primary_eligible=True
- Chile subduction corridor: events=6, IGPE=0.019337371959799267, direction=ch008_higher_observed_event_density, missed_days=0, current_missed_streak=0, longest_missed_streak=0, primary_eligible=True
- New Zealand CSEP: events=3, IGPE=0.049784879251524077, direction=ch008_higher_observed_event_density, missed_days=0, current_missed_streak=0, longest_missed_streak=0, primary_eligible=True

## Metric

IG_i = ln(lambda_CH008(i) / lambda_ETAS(i))
IGPE = (1/N) * sum_i IG_i
Positive IGPE favors CH-008; negative IGPE favors ETAS.

## Required evaluation discipline

- State whether the current protocol is a dry run or a claim-bearing prospective test.
- Report event count and scored-day coverage before interpreting IGPE.
- Separate provisional scores from catalog-settled final scores.
- Inspect each region; do not infer broad geographic generalization from only a pooled mean.
- Report missed days, invalidated regions, open incidents, and forecast freshness.
- Treat missed_region_days and longest_consecutive_missed_days as historical totals; current_consecutive_missed_days describes the active outage streak.
- Do not call CH-008 superior without the pre-registered event gate and uncertainty analysis.
- Do not interpret these rate forecasts as exact earthquake time, location, or magnitude predictions.

## Sources

- Live JSON: https://etas.bboga.com/api/evaluation.json
- Method: https://etas.bboga.com/en/about.html
- Dashboard data: https://etas.bboga.com/api/dashboard